GF Strategy: Embracing the Third Scenario Revolution 5G Business is the Mainline of Investment This Year

GF Strategy: Embracing the Third Scenario Revolution 5G Business is the Mainline of Investment This Year

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[Guangfa Strategy]Embracing the Third Scenario Revolution in the World-“Scenario Revolution” Report Series (1) Source: Dai Kang (Jin Qilin Analyst) Strategy World Report Summary ● 5G business acceleration is the main investment line this year.The scenario revolution has transformed into the line of “the revolutionary era of PC Internet scenes-the era of revolutionary mobile Internet scenes”, and then it will move towards the third revolutionary scene in the world-the “revolutionary era of everything connected scenes”.

This article is the first in our “Scenario Revolution” series of reports.

  ● What is a scene revolution?

  The scene revolution is a huge change in the various daily scene habits that have formed a fixed pattern in the whole society.

Since the end of the 20th century, two scene revolutions have occurred, the scene revolution brought by the PC Internet and the scene revolution brought by the mobile Internet.

The understanding of the scene revolution can be compared to the industrial revolution.

The main common point of the two is that the core driving force replaces the major scientific and technological progress of the provider. The main difference is the difference in the field of transformation.

  ● The first two scene revolutions have brought large-scale market prices in the capital market.

  Along with the wave of revolution in the PC Internet scene, US technology stocks ushered in the bull market of Kewang in 1995-00.

With the advancement of the mobile Internet scene revolution, the A-share market ushered in a GEM bull market in 13-15 years, and the U.S. stock market has shown a bull market in technology stocks for 16 years.

  ● A new round of scene revolution— “Revolution of Everything” is about to erupt.

  ”Connection” technology was a key point in the first two rounds of scene revolution.

The upgrade from 4G to 5G is a qualitative leap in “connected” technology. The major technological progress represented by 5G is expected to bring subversive changes to the current category scenarios.

  ● The connotation of the “Internet of Everything Revolution Scenario” and the three broad application scenarios of extended 5G are enhanced mobile broadband scenarios, high-reliability low-latency communications, and large-scale machine communications.

  ● From a strategic perspective: ①Why a meaningful scene revolution this year?

From a fundamental point of view, this year is the second year of 5G, and it is expected to usher in an acceleration inflection point of application-side fundamentals. From a liquidity perspective, it is expected that the currency will continue to be loose in 20 years, which will be more favorable for application-oriented end-points with strong growth attributes.From the perspective of estimation, the estimation of the application scenario side is still at a historical relative level; from the perspective of the transaction scale fund allocation, the public fund’s allocation of the application scenario side represented by the media / computer is still at a historically low level; ② Why is it recommended now?

The NCP epidemic has become a catalyst for this round of scene revolution. The epidemic situation has increased the demand for new scenes, and the speed of scene changes has increased significantly compared with the pre-epidemic situation. ③What are our distinctive views?

Many investors believe that the online demand due to the outbreak will gradually disappear after the epidemic is over. We believe that the wall-breaking of demand-side application scenarios has a catalytic effect, and some new scenarios will become new habits and continue; many investors believe that application scenarios are only concepts.Hype, we think this track is expected to give birth to a new technology unicorn giant; ④ How to grasp the rhythm?

One method is to grasp the big investment rhythm of application scenarios according to “eMBB-uRLLC-mMTC”. This year’s achievements are the first to achieve high-definition video, cloud games, online education, AR, etc.

The second method is to grasp the rhythm of revolutionary investment in staged scenarios based on six categories of catalysts; ⑤ How to grade and grade?

According to the order of 5G application landing, profit expectations, estimated levels, and fund allocation, the first grade: high-definition video, online education, and cloud games.

Second gear: AR / VR, cloud office, connected car / autonomous driving.

Third gear: telemedicine / medical information, industrial internet.

  Foreword People often overestimate changes over a year, but underestimate changes over a decade.

  Before starting this article, ask a few questions: How long have you never used cash?

How many times have you never written a letter?

How often have you never texted?

Do you remember listening to music on a CD player?

I believe most people will find that life has changed dramatically.

This change is the scene change.

The large-scale daily scene habit that has formed a fixed pattern throughout the society has undergone a huge change, which is the scene revolution.

  Since the end of the 20th century, there have been two scene revolutions worldwide, the scene revolution brought by the PC Internet and the scene revolution brought by the mobile Internet.

Both scene revolutions have brought large-scale market prices in the capital market.

The first scene revolution, the PC Internet scene revolution, gave birth to the 1995-2000 sci-tech market, and the second scene revolution, the mobile Internet revolution, gave birth to the A-share GEM bull market for 13-15 years and the technology bull for 15 years for the US stock market.

  Everyone knows that the 5G era is coming, but they still don’t understand the society in the 5G era.

We believe that 5G will bring the third scene revolution since the end of the 20th century, and 2020s is the starting point of a big era of global scene revolution.In addition to 5G, cloud computing, big data, AI and other scientific and technological advances will form a joint force to provide momentum for the new round of scene revolution. The degree of subversion of the new round of scene revolution may even surpass the previous two scene revolutions.

  In the third scenario revolution promoted by 5G, the scenario revolution in the era of the Internet of Everything, which application scenarios will be transformed?

How will the capital market be deduced?

How to master this scene revolution?

  This article, as the first in the “Scenario Revolution” series, will analyze these issues in depth.

In the future, we will launch a series of “Scenario Revolution” reports to continuously track investment opportunities in various application scenarios in the 5G era.

  The first part of the report is what is the scene revolution (a) scene and scene change The so-called scene mainly refers to the broad field of life, including specific daily / work / learning scenes.

Clothing, food, housing, transportation, social networking, shopping, etc., even ride elevators, these are all scenes.

In addition, medical treatment / travel etc. can also be attributed to a broad life scene.

  (2) The two scene revolutions since the end of the 20th century. The scene revolution is a huge change in the various daily scene habits that formed a fixed pattern in the whole society.

Since the end of the 20th century, two scene revolutions have occurred, the scene revolution brought by the PC Internet and the scene revolution brought by the mobile Internet.
From the perspective of China, the first decade of the 21st century can be roughly divided into the revolutionary era of the PC Internet scene, and the second decade of the 21st century can be roughly divided into the revolutionary era of the mobile Internet scene.

  1.The First Scenario Revolution——PC Internet Scenario Revolution The Internet began in 1969. Four universities in the United States realized the interconnection of major computers with ARPA funding from the United States Army. The TCP / IP protocol was officially launched in 1974.The WWW concept has greatly promoted the widespread application of the Internet.

China began to build the Internet in 1989. Its five-year plan aims to connect the four national backbone networks. In 1994, China built the first national TCP / IP Internet CERNET demonstration network.

Since 1997, the three major portals of NetEase, Sohu and Sina have been established.

  However, in the 1990s, PCInternet was generally far and distant from the lives of previous Chinese people, without bringing much change to society. From around 2000, PCInternet began to gradually change the life of the whole society, ushering in a real revolution of the PCInternet scene.
Tencent launched QQ in 1999, and became the country’s instant messaging tool for the next 10 years, which once impacted the mobile phone SMS business. In 2000, Baidu was established. Since then, the search engine represented by Baidu has completely changed the way people search and query information; 2000Around the year, Internet cafes became hot all over the country, and terminal games, especially online games, had an impact on arcade games, and arcade arcades gradually declined; Taobao was founded in 2003, and a considerable portion of offline shopping has been replaced by PC online shopping.; With the development of PC online shopping, Alipay and other third-party online payment methods have grown up.

Throughout the first decade of the 21st century, tremendous changes have taken place in search, social networking, entertainment, e-commerce, catering, media and many other fields, which constitutes the first scene revolution in the 21st century.

  2.The Second Scenario Revolution-Mobile Internet Scenario Revolution In 2007, Apple released the first iPhone. In the same year, Google officially launched the Android operating system and successfully occupied the mobile terminal market, marking the official opening of the mobile Internet era.

In 2008, Apple officially launched the App Store, driving a major shift in the entire Internet development and application model.

China Mobile Internet sprouted in 2000. China Mobile launched the mobile Internet business brand “Mobile Monternet”, and a large number of Monternet-based service providers have emerged. Users can enjoy mobile Internet services through SMS, MMS, and mobile Internet access.

In 2009, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology for China Mobile, China Telecom and China Unicom released the third-generation mobile communication license, marking that China has officially entered the 3G era. The increase in mobile network speed has gradually broken through the mobile Internet bandwidth, and mobile smart terminals are richApplication software has significantly improved the entertainment of mobile Internet.

  After the full rise of smartphones after 2010, China’s mobile Internet has developed rapidly, changing people’s daily lives more deeply and ushering in a revolution in the mobile Internet scene.

In 2010, the domestic Weibo ushered in the spring. The government-civilian communication based on the Weibo platform, public welfare participation, and the rapid development of the information disclosure system; Tencent launched WeChat, an application that provides instant messaging services for smart terminals in 2011;It has completely changed the traditional way of socializing. In 2013, Yubao went online, greatly reducing the cloud of wealth management and awakening the public’s awareness of wealth management.

In particular, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially issued a 4G license in 2013, and the substantial increase in network speed has promoted the comprehensive development of Internet applications.

In 2014, “Didi Taxi” went online, changing the traditional Yangzhao taxi mode, and “Internet +” traffic travel has gained popular support; major online game companies have launched various mobile games to grab market share. Its convenience and mobilityEnd games cause resistance shocks.

In the second decade of the 21st century, unprecedented changes have taken place in the fields of social networking, e-commerce, catering travel, and education, which constitute the second scene revolution of this century.

  (3) Scene revolution and industrial revolution The understanding of scene revolution can be compared with the industrial revolution.

The main common point of the two is that the core driving force replaces the major scientific and technological progress of the provider. The main difference is the difference in the field of transformation.

  The common point of the scene revolution and the industrial revolution is that the main driving forces are supplemented, that is, driven by major scientific and technological progress.

The industrial revolution mainly refers to the major breakthroughs in the field of science and technology on the supply side, which have greatly promoted the development of construction with new production methods or the use of energy as carriers. The boots have brought a new look to the economy and society.

The scenario revolution is also driven by the supply side, that is, driven by major scientific and technological progress, often with new products or new services as carriers, by reducing transaction costs or stimulating potential demand, it has triggered changes in multiple life scenarios throughout society.

In addition, there may also be changes in temporary scene habits promoted by the demand side. Some recent epidemics have affected changes in consumer behavior and temporary changes in scene habits.

  One of the main differences between the scene revolution and the industrial revolution lies in the different fields of transformation. The industrial revolution is mainly aimed at the industrial production field, and the scene revolution is mainly aimed at a wide range of fields.

As the name implies, the Industrial Revolution is mainly aimed at a series of changes in the field of industrial production.

The process of the first industrial revolution benefited from the invention and improvement of the steam engine. The traditional tasks relying on manpower and manual work were replaced by large-scale mechanized production. Human society entered the “steam age”; the advent and combustion of generators during the second industrial revolutionThe widespread use of electricity has strongly promoted the development of electricity and petrochemicals, and human society has entered the “electric age”; the third industrial revolution was marked by the invention and application of atomic energy, electronic computers, space technology, and biological engineering, rather than promotingIt has not only improved the progress of human society, economy and culture, but also affected the way of life and way of thinking.

The scene revolution is mainly aimed at the transformation of the generalized temporary field. The first scene revolution since the end of the 20th century was oriented towards the PC Internet. It caused huge changes in many fields such as search, social networking, entertainment, e-commerce, and media; the second scene revolution revolved aroundWith the mobile Internet as the center and the rapid popularization of smart phones, the prevalence of the concept of “Internet +” has greatly facilitated all aspects of human clothing, food and shelter.

  Second, the previous two scene revolutions have brought large-scale market prices in capital markets. (1) The first scene revolution: the PC Internet scene revolution gave birth to the 1995-2000 science and technology market. With the wave of the PC Internet scene revolution, American technology stocks ushered in.Bull market quotes.
The Internet commercialization mark Netscape was born in 1994, and the same year Yahoo was founded, it quickly gained the favor of venture capital, and the world’s first portal website began to move forward.

In 1995, Amazon, eBay went online, and Netscape’s IPO opened at $ 28. In just one minute of opening, it is expected to reach $ 70, which is regarded as the starting point of the Internet commercialization wave.Hotmail officially began commercial operations in 1996, and all users can send and receive e-mail through web browsers. It was acquired by Microsoft in late 1997, creating another wealth myth of the Internet.

Google was born in 1998 and became a professional search service provider.

In 1999, the United States invested more than 100 billion US dollars in the Internet, more than the total of the past 15 years, and the Nasdaq index got out of a big bull market.

  From the perspective of the industry, from 1990 to 1994, the performance of U.S. stocks was the most prominent, and from 1995 to 2000, the performance of U.S. stocks and technology stocks was a success.

Between 1990 and 1994, the required consumer sector in the S & P 500 industry index rose by 60.

44%, the best performance, the non-essential consumer sector rose by 40.

45%, ranking third, from an annual perspective, the consumer sector performed the most prominently; during this period, the information technology sector rose 54.

56%, ranked second. In the fourth quarter of 1994, the information technology sector has begun to exert its strength.

From 1995 to 2000, the performance of the S & P 500 information technology in the US stock market far exceeded that of other sectors, with an increase of 707.

44%, the medical sector and the communications equipment sector rose by 226.

78% and 222.

81%, ranked second and third.

  (2) The Second Scenario Revolution: The mobile Internet revolution gave birth to 13-15 years of A-share entrepreneurial cattle and the transfer of U.S. technology bulls. The A-share market ushered in the GEM bull market in 13-15 years and the U.S. stock market for 16 yearsSince the technology bull market.
From 2010 to 2011, Steve Jobs’s legacy iPhone4 / 4s was released continuously, and Apple’s mobile phone sales increased by 92 in two years.

8% and 81.

2%, regarded as an eternal classic; In 2011, Tencent launched the instant messaging application WeChat, which greatly changed the traditional way of socializing; In 2013, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a 4G business license, the full development of mobile Internet, Yuebao went online, and mobile low-door intelligenceFinancial management occupied a huge market. In the same year, it was called “the first year of mobile games.” Tencent Tianmei Studio launched the “Tiantian Series” mobile games. “Heartstone Legend” was brought to China by NetEase, which greatly impacted the end game and page game market.Didi taxis went online in 2015, and various types of online taxis make travel more convenient.

In this context, the A-share market took the lead in embodying this scene of revolution, and out of a wave of ChiNext bull market between 2013 and 2015, the U.S. stock market has shown a technological bullish for 16 years.

  From the perspective of industry, the performance of A-shares in this round of capital market is ahead of U.S. stocks. From 2010 to 2012, the A-share consumer industry performed well, and from 2013 to the first half of 2015, the A-share TMT industry performed significantly.Lead.

From 2010 to 2012, the A-share market generally underperformed, with only the food and beverage industry growing7.

47%, the largest increase; the average value of other industries fell, consumer industries such as medicine and biology, household appliances performed relatively better, with declines of 2 respectively.

78% and 12.


From 2013 to the first half of 2015, the A-share TMT industry made great efforts. The highest increases were in the computer, media and communications industries of the TMT industry, with increases of 578%, 521% and 363%.

  From 2010 to 2015, the performance of U.S. technology stocks was moderate, and from 2016 to 2020, the performance of U.S. technology stocks led the way.

Between 2010 and 2015, the best performing U.S. stocks were the non-essential consumer sector, with an increase of 164.

18%, the information technology sector is in fourth place, which is a medium level with an increase of 94.


From 2016 to 2020, the performance of the information technology sector in the US stocks outperformed other sectors with an increase of 123.

31%, while the second and third financial and non-essential consumption sectors rose by only 58.

59% and 58.


  Third, a new round of scene revolution “Everything Internet Scenario Revolution” is about to erupt Since the end of the 20th century, the global scene revolution has transformed into the “PC Internet Scene Revolution Era-Mobile Internet Scene Revolution Era” line interpretation, and then will move towards the “Everything Internet Scene Revolution”era”.
  (1) One of the core driving forces of the new round of scene revolution-the connection technology represented by 5G “connection” technology is the key point of the first two rounds of scene revolution.

Just as the core driving 杭州桑拿网 force of each round of the industrial revolution is major scientific and technological progress, the core driving force of each round of scene revolution is also major scientific and technological progress.

The key point of the PC Internet scene revolution and the mobile Internet scene revolution lies in “connection” technology.

① In the age of the PC Internet, computer and network interconnection technology have been invented and popularized. Due to certain fixed scenarios (such as home / company / school, etc.), the way of living / working / learning has changed significantly.

What a single computer can do is limited, and when a large number of computers are connected together, the first quantitative change causes a qualitative change; ② in the mobile Internet era, the expansion of smart phones expands communication technology upgrades, the traditional habit of certain mobile scenariosSignificant changes have also taken place.

In the past, it was only a fixed scene connected by a computer, and the mobile Internet LBS (location-based service, location-based service) connected mobile people together, causing a second qualitative change.

  The upgrade from 4G to 5G is a qualitative leap in “connected” technology. The major technological progress represented by 5G is expected to bring subversive changes to the current category scenarios.

The progress brought by the upgrade from 4G to 5G has a qualitative leap in “connection”: ① conversion, the theoretical transmission displacement of 5G can reach dozens of times of 4G; ② massive machine connections, 5G supports large-scale IoT terminals and can run③ The connection is more reliable, the delay is extended, and the transmission delay required by some autonomous driving is within 10ms, and it can be extremely demanding, which cannot be achieved in the 4G era.The changes in these aspects can be said to be qualitative changes caused by quantitative changes.

This previously difficult function can be easily implemented in the 5G era.

  (2) The second core driving force of the new round of scene revolution-Computational analysis technology represented by cloud computing In addition to 5G, cloud computing, big data, AI and other fields of scientific and technological progress will form a joint force for the new round of scene revolutionProviding power, the subversion of the new round of scene revolution may even surpass the previous two scene revolutions.
If you take the human system as an analogy, cloud computing is the calculation area in the coaxial brain. Big data is similar to the memory area of the brain center. The analysis area of the AI brain center. The 5G network separates the body’s slender neural network.The visual, auditory, olfactory, taste organs, connected cars and connected machines of the connected sensors themselves are similar to the limbs.

  In the era of the PC Internet and mobile Internet, cloud computing and big data have developed, but due to the limited quality of “connections” (slow speed, reduced number of connections, low reliability, and extended time), the entire system is actually clumsy and slow, andThe 5G era has greatly improved the quality of the connection, and it can feed back massive amounts of massive data through massive connections to further leverage the functions of cloud computing and provide AI with more useful information to form a virtuous circle.

If you use human growth as a metaphor, the PC Internet era is similar to human infancy (lying in the cradle), the mobile Internet era is similar to human early childhood (toddler), and the next era of the Internet of Everything will move towards human childhood (Running around).

How big is the change from babies to toddlers to children, how big is the change from the PC Internet scene revolution to the mobile Internet scene revolution to the Internet of Everything scene revolution.

  Fourth, the connotation and extension of the “Internet of Everything Scenario Revolution” (I) Three general application scenarios in the 5G era 5G mobile communication technology has ultra-high speed, ultra-low latency, ultra-high density characteristics, about 4G to provide a better user experience.
According to the “White Paper on 5G Economic and Social Impact” of the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, the explosive growth of mobile data traffic, the massive connection of IoT devices, and the widespread demand for vertical industry applications, 5G is increasing the foundation for speed, mobility, delay, and spectrum efficiency.In addition, the four key capability indicators of user experience rate, connection number density, traffic density and energy efficiency are added.

  ● User experience rate: The highest rate of 5G is 10-20Gbps, which is increased by 10-20 times, and the user experience rate will reach 0.

1Gbps-1Gbps, increased by 10-100 times; ● Connection density: 5G can reach 1 million units / km2, a 10-fold increase; In terms of spectrum efficiency, 5G has increased by 3-5 times compared to 4G; ● Traffic density: 5GUp to 10Mbps / m2, a 100-fold increase; In terms of network energy efficiency, 5G has increased a 100-fold; ● Transmission delay: 5G reachable distance order of magnitude, a 10-fold increase, to meet the stringent requirements of Internet of Vehicles and industrial control.

  The combination of IoT technology and 5G will greatly change social production and economic activities, and realize “interconnection of all things.”

The 5G era scene revolution has wider coverage and greater scalability.

According to the official ITU plan, 5G includes three broad application scenarios: enhanced mobile broadband, high-reliability, low-latency communication, and large-scale machine communication: ● Enhanced Mobile Broadband Scenario (eMBB): refers to the existing mobile broadband service scenario.For the further improvement of user experience and other performance, representative applications include: 4K HD video, virtual reality, augmented reality, distance education, field support, etc.

  ● High-reliability and low-latency communication (uRLLC): This type of scenario usually involves security areas that require high low-latency signal transmission.

Take the Internet of Vehicles as an example. The purpose of Internet of Vehicles is to have V2X communication capabilities, that is, to achieve communication between cars and people, cars and cars, cars and road test facilities, and cars and networks.

  ● Large-scale machine communication (mMTC): It can realize the interconnection of all kinds of equipment. Representative applications include the Industrial Internet of Things (automation and intelligentization of factory equipment through IoT devices), and smart cities (through urban infrastructure including lighting, security, energy,Realize networking and data collection to improve city management efficiency), smart home (by connecting furniture such as air conditioners, refrigerators, televisions, etc., and then control it through APP).

  (II) Mapping relationship between scene revolution and industry level One of the specific applications of 5G: HD video ● The commercialization of 5G network brings development opportunities for the ultra high definition video industry.

5G networks will bring changes to the various sectors of the ultra-high-definition video industry and bring about a new round of digital content industry upgrades.

① The high-bandwidth characteristics of 5G can support the transmission of multi-screen ultra-high-definition live broadcast signals, and support users to switch freely between the pictures of different cameras.

② The combination of 5G and ultra high-definition will drive the generation of new business scenarios, provide data distribution, intelligent computing and immersive interactive services for audiovisual innovative services, and promote the technical standards of ultra high-definition industry, content production and broadcast, transmission and distribution, and continuous development of terminal screens.

③ High-speed and low-latency 5G will break through the broadband and delay interruption of cloud rendering, and solve the problem of real-time cloud rendering development. The processing of image information can be directly completed in real-time in the cloud. The real-time cloud rendering technology will be widely applicable to every networked screen., To achieve synchronization of PC, mobile phones and other mobile devices on the real-time 3D rendering screen.

  5G traditional application 2: Cloud gaming 5G features high bandwidth and low latency to meet cloud gaming network requirements.

According to the ICT White Paper on Cloud Game Industry Development White Paper (2019), eMBB provides a converted transmission channel for the high-definition video transmission required for precise gaming. The implementation of mMTC has truly made the ubiquity of game carriers, and uRLLC pioneeredApplication scenarios that are extremely sensitive to latency.

The combination of these three scenarios significantly improves the mobility of cloud games.

  ● 5G large bandwidth supports 4K HD cloud games.

The 5G digital delay performance enables instant interaction between the device and the server. Bandwidth units up to Gbps can meet the transmission of FHD resolution games.

4K high-definition cloud games require high-speed bandwidth (80Mbps), stable network speed (less than 1% reduction), and low latency (end-to-end 50ms). 5G users continue to experience the rate of 1Gb / s, and 5G air interface delay is 1 millisecond, high-speed and low.The gradual 5G network will solve the problem of confronting the development of 4K HD cloud games.

  ● Edge computing reduces network-side delay.

Research on network architecture in 3GPPSA2 (TR23.

799), and 5G system architecture (23.

50① supports edge computing as the main target indicator of 5G network architecture.

In order to support edge computing, 5G networks can choose a closer UPF for the end user based on the contract information of the terminal, user location, related information provided by application functions (AF), and other policies and routing rules.Receiving and accessing local edge networks and business applications.

  5G landing applications, cloud games is expected to become a 100 billion-level market.

Google, Tencent, NetEase and other industry giants have deployed cloud gaming products.

Ai Media Consulting report shows that China’s cloud game users will reach 2 in 2020.

4.7 billion people, an increase of 114 in ten years.

8% is expected to increase to 6 in 2023.

5.8 billion; the cloud gaming market is expected to reach 6.8 billion U.S. dollars in 2020 and increase to 98.6 billion U.S. dollars in 2023.

In addition, according to the Newzoo report, the number of global cloud gaming users is expected to return to 7 in 2020.30 million people, rising to 1 in 2022.

2.5 billion people, releasing a huge market size.

With the acceleration of the commercialization of 5G, cloud games will reshape the entire industrial landscape and re-evaluate the value of the industry.

  5G Proprietary Application III: AR / VR virtual reality (VR) is based on computer simulation of a virtual environment to give people a sense of environmental immersion; augmented reality (AR) technology is a technology that integrates virtual information with the real world to optimizeAfter the virtual information simulation is realized, it is applied to the real world.

The law of network transmission speed VR / AR industry development.

The actual transmission speed of 4G networks is several trillion trillion, and the information transmission speed is low. At the same time, there are also problems such as a small field of view, low resolution, insufficient rendering capabilities, poor image quality, and poor terminal mobility.

The application of 5G technology will make up for the shortcomings of VR / AR communication transmission and improve the experience of VR / AR equipment.

  ● High-speed transmission.

5G uses cloud computing to do a lot of processing on the edge cloud, and uses a high CPU / GPU processing stack. It can be quickly transmitted to the local area through the 5G fast connection, which effectively improves the VR / AR product experience.

The 5G frequency is much higher than the 4G network. The higher the frequency, the wider the span, and the unit transmission volume is greatly increased, which brings the increase of ultra-high-speed transmission rate.

  ● Micro base station optimization experience.

The 5G network mainly uses micro base stations, and 5G uses a mobile edge computer system to sink processing logic to the edge of the network, that is, the base stations closer to the user.

The user sends a request, and the data will be transmitted to the base station in a very short time. The base station also quickly converts the feedback, so that the delay of the VR / AR application in the mobile terminal is greatly offset.

  ● Wider application scenarios.

According to IDC’s latest ten predictions for the VR / AR market in 2019, technological innovation and applications have been important development trends for the VR / AR market for 19 years. At present, industry applications are continuously expanding and deepening, and consumer scenarios in segmented areas will continue to be enriched. In the futureThere will be more industry branches representing VR / AR technology.

  At present, VR / AR is mainly used in games. In the future, the 5G VR / AR industry will enter the six major fields of interactive entertainment, smart manufacturing, medical health, smart cities, smart retail, and smart education, bringing new experiences to customers and promotingThe emergence of new business models.

According to the IDC Global Augmentation and Virtual Reality Expenditure Guide, by 2023 China’s VR / AR market spending will reach 652.

100 million US dollars, compared with the forecast for 2019 (65.

US $ 300 million).

At the same time, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2018 to 2023 will reach 84.


  5G Traditional Application 4: Industrial Internet Policy Landed to Promote the Development of Industrial Internet.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s “5G + Industrial Internet” 512 Project Promotion Plan Notice states that by 2022, it will break through key 5G technologies that meet the specific needs of the Industrial Internet, while improving its innovative application capabilities and resource supply capabilities.

The 5G + Industrial Internet’s industrial support capabilities have been significantly improved; the pilot application of the 5G + Industrial Internet in the vertical sector has covered 10 key industries in the construction and transformation of the intranet; creating a benchmark and model for the 5G + Industrial Internet’s intranet construction and transformationThe project will form at least 20 typical industrial application scenarios; promote the formation of 5G and industrial Internet integration and overlap, promote mutual progress, multiply the development of innovation, promote the digitalization of manufacturing, networking, intelligent upgrading, and promote economic growth and development.

  5G brings new opportunities for the development of the Industrial Internet.

Along with the increase in the number of workshop equipment entering the factory intranet, the small bandwidth of 4G networks and the high time delay lead to insufficient accuracy and a limited number of introductions.

5G technology meets the transformation of traditional manufacturing enterprises to digital-based smart factories, with high bandwidth, low latency, and multiple terminal access to realize equipment interconnection and remote interactive application requirements in an industrial environment.

In industrial applications such as the Internet of Things, logistics tracking, industrial AR, industrial automation control, and cloud robotics, 5G has become a key support technology for smart factories, bringing historic development potential to the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry.

  ● Intelligent production: In the flexible manufacturing process of intelligent manufacturing, customized vehicles dynamically adjust the production line through the cloud intelligent information system, and the AGV moves independently to complete the production layout.

Collaborative and collision-free operation between AGVs during production.

The dynamic production line can be subdivided and combined according to online orders to meet the needs of different models and configurations, and quickly realize customized production of vehicles. However, the traditional automotive platform is difficult to meet the highly customized requirements in terms of flexibility and the customized production cycle.First class.

  ● Industrial robots: 5G enables robots to cooperate with each other to complete complex tasks that previous robots could not independently accomplish.

In the process of human-machine interaction, the robot senses the actions of people and the position of items in real time, and provides timely feedback and cooperation to achieve fast and safe cooperation with field personnel.

  ● Cloud platform: Connected devices communicate with the cloud platform in real time. Managers grasp the overall situation of the plant in time, and combine field data analysis such as research and development plans, new product trial production, raw material procurement, and production line debugging to reasonably schedule new production lines, soThe plant can operate in an optimal combination and at an allowable production cost.

  5G traditional application 5: Internet of Vehicles (Autonomous Driving) 5G solves the problem of vehicle-to-device interworking in the Internet of Vehicles.

① 4G wireless network delay and other problems have led to the application of vehicle networking in real life.

The ultra-low latency characteristics of 5G networks can better solve the problem of inter-vehicle-to-vehicle interconnection.

② The reduction of V2X communication delay will become an effective complement to the automatic driving system.

When the autonomous driving system recognizes the changes in the surrounding environment, the state of the vehicle and the pedestrian, V2X will also send the same information to the vehicle through direct communication to ensure the accuracy of the automatic driving system detection and decision-making.

③ Drive the transformation of traditional automobile industry.The intelligent vehicle solutions based on environmental sensing sensors such as cameras and ultrasonic radars that have been implemented will be integrated into the car networking system, which completely solves the problem that a single car island cannot communicate with the outside world and cannot achieve multi-car interactive and connected driving.Road coordination technology and other issues.
  V2X will welcome 100 billion US dollars market space.
According to Markets and Markets forecasts, the global V2X market size will increase from US $ 22.6 billion in 2016 to US $ 99.6 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 17.
V2X is a segmented industry with the most industrial potential and the clearest market demand in the field of Internet of Things. In recent years, governments and enterprises in various countries have actively promoted the development of technical standards and industrialization processes, and promoted the commercialization of V2X.
According to the forecast of the development status of the EU region by the 5G Automobile Alliance, V2X penetration rate will begin to open up channels starting in 2020, and is expected to exceed 90% in the 2040s.
According to ABI Research forecasts, 5G connected cars will reach 50.3 million by 2025.
  5G representative application 6: Medical ● terminal layer: intelligent medical equipment terminal.
5G 智慧医疗解决方案以PACS影像数据为依托,通过大数据+人工智能技术方案,构建 AI 辅助诊疗应用,对影像医学数据进行建模分析,对病情、病灶进行分析,为医生提供决策支撑,提升Medical efficiency and quality.
  ● Platform layer: medical informatization and telemedicine platform upgrade.
① Remote consultation: The high-speed characteristics of 5G network can support 4K / 8K remote high-definition consultation and high-speed transmission and sharing of medical image data, improve diagnostic accuracy and guidance efficiency, and promote the sinking of high-quality medical resources.
②Remote ultrasound: The millisecond-level delay characteristic of 5G will be able to support higher-level doctors to control robotic arms to conduct remote ultrasound examinations in real time.
Compared with traditional dedicated lines, 5G networks can solve the problems of difficult and high-cost dedicated line construction in remote areas such as grassroots hospitals and islands, as well as insecure WiFi data transmission in hospitals and high delays in remote control.
③Remote surgery: 5G network simplifies the network environment in the operating room, reducing network access difficulty and construction costs.
The use of 5G network slicing technology can quickly establish a dedicated communication channel between superior and subordinate hospitals, effectively guarantee the stability, real-time and safety of remote surgery, reduce the cost of medical treatment for patients, and help sink high-quality medical resources.
  5. How to grasp this round of scene revolution from a strategic perspective?
  (1) From a strategic perspective, why the most important thing this year is the scene revolution?
  From a strategic perspective, the core context of the scene revolution is the most important thing to pay attention to this year.
Looking at the fundamentals from the perspective of the industrial cycle, the experience in the 4G era shows that the fundamentals from the hardware end inflection point to the application scenario end are generally delayed by half a year to one year. In the 4G period, the application scenario end ushered in the fundamental inflection point in the first year.This year is the second year of 5G, and it is expected to usher in an acceleration inflection point of application-side fundamentals. From the perspective of liquidity, it is expected that monetary policy will continue to be accommodative in 20 years. Liquidity easing will be more favorable for end-points in application scenarios with strong growth attributes.From the perspective of valuation, the current valuation of base stations and terminals has risen, and the valuation of application scenarios is still at a relatively low historical level. Taking the media as an example, the adjusted PE (TTM) valuation is only in 2010.From the perspective of 25% historical quantiles; from the perspective of the allocation of funds at the transaction level, the over-proportion of public funds to hard technology represented by electronics has reached a high level, while the allocation of application scenarios represented by the media is still at a historically low level.
  1.基本面:从产业周期角度看应用场景端有望在20年迎来基本面加速拐点  5G产业周期沿着“基站—>终端—>应用”的顺序推进,今年是5G的第二年,继基站和After the terminals are significantly promoted, the application scenario is expected to enter the accelerated promotion period.
From the perspective of China’s license issuance, base station construction, and terminal sales, comparing the industrial cycle position, 20G 5G (the second year of 5G) is roughly equivalent to 14G 4G (the second year of 4G).
① Licensing: In the 4G era, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a 4G license in December 2013.
In the 5G era, in June 2019, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued 5G licenses to the three major operators and China Radio and Television; ② Base station construction: In the 4G era, the growth rate of new base stations in 2014 was as high as 350%, which was the highest growth year.
In the 5G era, 130,000 5G base stations were added in 19 years, and 800,000 are expected to be added in 20 years. The growth rate is expected to exceed 500%. It is expected to become the highest growth rate of new base stations in the entire 5G construction cycle. ③ Terminal sales:4G smartphone shipments in China in 2014 reached 1.
700 million units. It is estimated that 200 million 5G smartphones will be shipped in 20 years, which is on the order of 4G smartphones in 14 years.

  The experience in the 4G era shows that the fundamental point of inflection from the hardware side to the application scenario side is generally delayed by half a year to one year. The hardware inflection point of the hardware side in the 5G era has bottomed out in 19Q1, and there is a great probability that the basic side of the application side will be 20 years old.Surface acceleration inflection point.
In the 4G era, the application scenario ushered in the first year. In the 4G era, from the perspective of operating income, the cumulative electronic operating income began to pick up in 12Q2 year-on-year, and the media began to pick up in 13Q2. The hardware side was ahead of the application scenario side for about 1 year; from the profitLook, the cumulative net profit of electronic attribution began to pick up in 13Q1 year-on-year, and the media started to pick up in 13Q3. The hardware side was ahead of the application scene side for about half a year.
At present, the cumulative net profit of electronic attribution has bottomed out in 19Q1 year-on-year, and there is a high probability that 20 years in this round of industrial cycle will be the turning point of fundamentals at the application scenario side.
  The interpretation of 5G in the capital market is also based on the logic of “base station-terminal-application”. Base stations and terminals have been interpreted in 18-19, and applications in 20 years are expected to take over.
In 18 and 19 years, the performance of the base station side was released, and the capital market has been fully deduced. In 19 years, the inflection point of consumer electronics fundamentals began to deduct.
Compared with the interpretation of the application side in the 4G period, we judge that the application scenario side has begun to enter the inflection point of fundamentals in the 20 years and is expected to perform in the capital market.
In fact, as the vanguard of the application scenario, the game has taken the lead in reacting.
  2.分母端:流动性延续宽松,对成长属性强的应用场景端更为有利  决策层推进降低实体融资成本决心坚定,预计20年货币政策延续宽松态势,流动性宽松对成长属性强的应用场景端标的More favorable.
Since 18 years, the trend of risk-free interest rates has fallen, and the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds from 19Q3 has gone from 3.
88% dropped to 3.
14%, down 74BP, but the actual financing costs rose instead of falling, the weighted average interest rate of general loans of financial institutions instead from 5.
80% up to 5.
96%, up 16BP.
In order to dredge the monetary policy transmission mechanism and effectively reduce the financing cost of the entity, the central bank has implemented LPR reform since August 19 to guide the decline of the entity’s interest rate.
Since August 19, LPR quotes have fallen 3 times, with a cumulative decline of 16BP.Considering that the epidemic situation has increased the operating pressure of enterprises, it is expected that the decision-making level will reduce the scale of entity financing costs in 20 years.

In the context of the Spring Festival epidemic this year, the transition was carried out on the first day after the holiday.

2 trillion US dollars to maintain market liquidity, and simultaneously reduce the 7-day and 14-day reverse repurchase rates by 10BP each.

After the start of the year, the short-term interest rate is basically the lowest in recent years.

  Compared with the 13-15-year GEM bull market created by the revolution of the mobile Internet scene, the current liquidity environment is clearly separated by 13 years. From the perspective of the liquidity sufficiency since the beginning of the year and the downward gradient of the gradient, the liquidity environment this year may be comparable to 14.
The 13-year liquidity environment is relatively poor. The short-term interest rate R007 center rises upwards by more than 200BP (using the monthly average), and the long-term interest rate 10Y government bond yields rises by 98BP.

Since the beginning of this year (as of February 15), the R007 hub has fallen by about 20BP, and the 10Y government bond yield has fallen by 27BP.

This level is clearly due to 13 years.

The denominator liquidity environment faced by the 2013 GEM bull market is relatively poor, and the current liquidity environment is significantly better.

Judging from the liquidity sufficiency and the declining pace of interest rates since the beginning of the year, this year’s liquidity environment may be comparable to 14 years.

We do not judge whether the final liquidity may repeat the 15-year-old looseness, but comparing 13 years can make our anchors more fixed: 20 years of application scenarios will promote the inflection point of fundamentals (similar to 13 years), and20 years of liquidity is significantly better than 13 years.

  3.Estimation: From the perspective of estimation, the relative error of the adjusted estimation of the application scenario is still at a relatively historical level, while the estimation level of the base station and the terminal has been improved.

Due to the error in the amount of goodwill impairment loss of some companies in the TMT in 2018, it has disturbed the overall growth of the industry. A direct comparison of the PE (TTM) valuation of various industries will translate into a higher scale of the media industry.

In fact, if we make adjustments to various industries, that is, excluding the effects of extending companies and excluding goodwill impairment losses, the media industry on the application side is the lowest estimated industry in the current TMT. The media will continue on February 14, 20After adjustment PE (TTM) is 32x, while computer, electronics, communication are 53x, 44x, 40x.

Generally speaking, the media adjusted PE (TTM) estimates are also at discrete quantile levels in historical quantiles, currently at 25% of historical quantiles since 2010, while electronics, computers, and communications are at 70%,64%, 54%.

  Judging from the configuration of each secondary subdivision industry, the current industries with over-proportionation exceeding 90% of the quantile since 2003 include semiconductors, other electronics, and electronics manufacturing.

Industries below the average since 2003 include optical optoelectronics, computer applications, cultural media, communications operations, and communications equipment.

  (B) Why is the scene revolution recommended at this point in time?

  The NCP epidemic has become a catalyst for this round of scene revolution. The epidemic situation has increased the demand for new scenes, and the speed of scene transformation has increased significantly compared with that before the epidemic.

The scenario revolution was switched from the original supply-side technological advancement drive to supply (technological advancement) and demand (epidemic changes behavior behavior) two-wheel drive.

According to the outbreak of SARS in 2003, it has accelerated the progress of the application scene revolution. According to the experience at the time, the three elements of the success of the “new scene” are demand, technology, and user stickiness.

The current 5G push has solved the technical problems, and this year’s NCP epidemic situation needs advance.

The NCP epidemic situation has widely changed the behavior habits of the whole society, some online demand has increased, some offline scenes have shifted to online, and consumer habits / demands / behavior patterns have undergone subtle changes.

Take online house viewing as an example. In the past, consumers were still accustomed to go to the on-site house directly. Consumers with sudden illness had to increase the demand for online house viewing. This is like the pre-SARS consumers were not used to online shopping.Accelerate the popularity of online shopping at the same rate.

Similarly, the demand for online office and online education also increased significantly after the outbreak.

Numerous evidences indicate that the speed of scene evolution has increased significantly.

  (3) What are our distinctive views on the scene revolution?

  Many investors may think that after the epidemic is over, the online demand erupted due to the new crown epidemic will gradually disappear. Therefore, it is not worth in-depth participation in judging the persistent contradiction of excess returns of related varieties at the application scenario side.Difficulties in cultivating consumer habits have a catalytic effect on demand-side application scenarios, and a considerable part of online demand will continue as new consumer habits after the epidemic has ended. In the future, with the advancement of supply-side technology, it is expected to usher inTrend upwards.

Some application scenarios due to the epidemic situation may indeed decline after the epidemic situation.

However, more application scenarios may enter a rising trend. Some online medical treatments, online education, and online house viewing, etc. The previous problems faced by these scenarios are that it is difficult to reverse consumer habits and even new technologies in a short period of time.It is indeed more convenient and advantageous.

This epidemic has solved the problem of cultivating consumer habits. The whole society is “forced” to experience online medical treatment, online education, online house viewing, etc. Of course, the online scene cannot completely replace offline, but there is a considerable demand for the use of technologyCan be replaced online.

This is just like the attitude of consumers towards online shopping before SARS in 2003. Opponents will reorganize various reasons and cannot check the product style / whether it is easy to use / quality on the spot. In case of failure to receive the goods after payment, the quality problem is difficult to solve.Budget, etc., but after consumers have experienced the advantages of online shopping, they can expand the technological progress to solve the original pain points. The comparative advantage of online shopping over offline shopping has continued to expand since 2003.

  In addition, many investors may think that this round of application scenarios is just a pure concept hype common to A shares, and it will not be sustainable in the future.

We do not deny the incorporation of fish and dragons in the early stages of risk appetite repair, but we judge that this is a round of application scenario revolutions, and the final transformation degree will exceed the expectations of most investors. In the process, new technology unicorns are expected to be producedGiants, investors must not ignore the revolutionary scene of the scene to fake and identify the growth stocks with great potential.

Just like looking at the next ten years in 2000, few people can predict that Taobao and the Alibaba Group behind it will grow into a giant in the e-commerce field, and very few people can expect that QQ will grow into an indispensable instant at the time.Communication tools; Looking forward to the next ten years in 2010, few people can think of moving from the PC Internet to the mobile Internet era. WeChat will replace QQ in just one or two years, and Didi Taxi will subvert twice a year.The entire taxi industry.

Looking forward to the revolutionary era of the Internet of Everything scenario promoted by 5G, we expect that new unicorns will emerge in many fields, bringing disruptive changes and growing into new leaders.

  (4) How to grasp the rhythm and order of revolutions in various scenes?

  From the perspective of rhythm, one of the methods is to refer to the official sequence of actions and grasp the big investment rhythm of application scenarios according to “eMBB-uRLLC-mMTC”. The application scenarios that will be the first to increase this year will be HD video, cloud games, online education, AR, etc.
The second method is to grasp the rhythm of revolutionary investment in staged scenarios according to various catalysts, and observe the depth and speed of the scene’s revolution from six types of catalyst sizes, including policy intensity, product breakthroughs, standard formulation, technological innovation, supporting industrial systems, and primary market investment vane.Marginal change.

  1.One of the methods of grasping the rhythm: Overall, grasp the rhythm of the revolutionary investment from the 5G official promotion plan. In December 2019, the 3GPP RAN working group meeting planned for further technical investment in 5G NR wireless.According to the standard formulation sequence, eMBB-uRLLC-mMTC opens application scenarios in sequence, and it is estimated that it will take 5-10 years to complete all of them.

Currently the R15 standard is frozen, the R16 standard will be frozen in 2020, and the R17 standard will be frozen in 2021.

Among them, the R15 version specification mainly focuses on eMBB application scenarios; R16 horizontally focuses on URLLC, expanding 5G applications and further improving existing functional efficiency, which can reduce the network delay target to less than 1 times; R17 will replace mMTC related specifications and enhance data collection.There are major technological innovations in projects, data acquisition enhancement projects, and enhancement of vertical industry application capabilities to more fully support vertical industry networking applications.

  We believe that the first application scenarios currently landing will be HD video, cloud games, online education, AR, etc.

However, some application scenarios, such as autonomous driving, require the combined force of AI and other technologies to successfully land.

According to China Mobile’s 5G Application and Case Study, the ten key areas are closely related to 5G: government affairs and public utilities, industry, agriculture, sports and entertainment, medical care, transportation, finance, tourism, education, energy.

In the initial stage of 5G development, SA standards and network deployment both took a certain amount of time. Combined with the application of the ten major industries on 5G broadband, large connections, and low-latency network capabilities, as well as the current status of industry development, we believe that currentlyApplication scenarios will be high-definition video, cloud games, online education, AR, etc.

However, some application scenarios, such as autonomous driving, require the combined force of AI and other technologies to successfully land.
  ● Communication technology upgrade based on large-scale promotion.

The three major application scenarios of 5G date, large broadband, wide coverage, and low-latency network coverage have been completed, and technical problems such as cloud gaming and high-definition video have been resolved. Some of the information transmission by network broadband and relay is to a certain extenteliminated.

As one of the core technologies of new technology and new economy, 5G continues to promote network coverage. The application scenarios such as high-definition video, online medical care, and online education are expanding on a large scale. It is expected to usher in a period of rapid development and promote the continuous growth of network traffic.

  ● Consumption patterns change, with a consumer base.

According to the commercialization route of 5G, entertainment short videos, 4K high-definition videos, VR film and television and virtual shopping have profound anticipation significance in 1-3 years of use.

From the perspective of consumption patterns, the number of people living online has increased, and cloud games, VR, and online education have accelerated their popularity in the new era of 5G Internet.

In the 5G era, the Internet as a whole has improved the further upgrade of consumer product supply chains and sales channels, and has focused more on the “people-oriented” scenario of creating consumer experiences, cloud gaming, online education, etc. or the direction of revenue under new consumption changes.

  ● The new crown epidemic has accelerated the change of consumption patterns, and the application scene has taken the lead in landing.

Affected by the new coronavirus epidemic in 2020, the provinces will postpone the resumption of work, and the offline flow of people will be inclined, which will increase dependence on online office and online education.

In terms of online medical treatment, the National Health and Medical Commission issued the “Notice on Strengthening Informationization to Support the Prevention and Control of Pneumonia Epidemic of New Coronavirus Infection”, calling for strengthening data collection and analysis applications, actively developing telemedicine services, standardizing Internet diagnostic and consulting services, and deepening”Internet +” government services to strengthen basic and security work.

In addition, according to DingDing data, on the day of resumption of work after the year, nearly 200 million people started the cloud office model, and more than 10 million enterprise organizations used DingDong cloud services.

  2.The second method of grasping the rhythm: focus on six types of catalysts to deal with the scenario revolution. Investment in the future. It is recommended to focus on policy strength, product breakthroughs, standard formulation, technological innovation, supporting industrial systems, and primary market investment weathervanes.Marginal change.
  ● Strength of policy: Scenarios for industries related to strategic revolution The intensity of support for revolution-related industries will indicate the medium- and long-term development direction and space.

The key points of the “Fourteenth Five-Year Plan” separately quote the special application needs of vertical industries such as 5G information development and the Industrial Internet of Things, Internet of Vehicles, etc. Among them, the “12 Powerful Countries” principle includes “Network Power, Technology Power”;”In the strategic emerging industry plan, it is pointed out that 5G network construction and pre-commercial trials are being promoted. The future” 14th Five-Year Plan “is worth looking forward to, and it is expected that key plans will be made on the scale of 5G commercial promotion.

  ● Product breakthrough: The release of core products means that many terminal needs have landed, and the “demonstration effect” has rapidly driven large-scale radiation.

Focus on the release of explosive products (such as cloud games), focus on important exhibitions such as CES.

  ● Standard formulation: The promulgation of the national standard means a new level of industrial quality.

The important time routines for the development of 5G are firstly 3GPP planning (resetting technical standards and phases), and secondly, referring to operator planning (5G formal commercial use in 20 years).

  ● Technical innovation: Technological breakthroughs in cross-cutting fields such as cloud computing, big data, and AI will help scene penetration.

  ● Supporting industry system: to provide innovative development guarantees for the industry scene, such as the specification and release of game version number approval, August 18, “Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Deep Integration of Culture and Technology”, more HD video and cloud game transactionsAnd copyright protection.

  ● Primary market investment weathervane: pay attention to PE / VC industry investment trends (especially unicorn outbreaks), certain online education, remote office, etc.

  (5) What are the investment opportunities in various fields of the current “scene revolution”?

  We evaluate the investment priority of each segmented application scenario based on the 5G landing rhythm, evaluation, profit, and fund holding data of the core application scenario.

The results are sorted and ranked according to the current “scene revolution” A-share investment priorities: ① the first stage: high-definition video, online education, cloud games; ② the second stage: AR / VR, cloud office, connected car / autonomous driving③ The third file: telemedicine / medical information, industrial Internet.

  6. Risk warnings: (1) The progress of 5G is less than expected; (2) The impact of 5G on society may exceed expectations; (3) The capital market ‘s response to 5G exceeds expectations.